Vladimir Putin still has a strategy
I’m going to make two assertions here that are closely related, even if at first blush they do not seem to be, and that are equally disturbing regardless. Then, I’m going to offer a series of predictions that are no less so—so brace yourself.
First, Vladimir Putin is still operating under a coherent strategy, despite appearances to the contrary. Yes, at least in the short term, he made a mistake with his choice to invade Ukraine; he vastly underestimated the resolve of the Ukrainian people and thus may have dug his country and its military into a quagmire from which there are seemingly no good options to emerge without humiliation or defeat.
But this does not mean that Putin has simply gone insane. I still believe there’s very much a method to his madness.
Second, if the United States were to hold a presidential election today and Donald Trump were again the Republican nominee, he would win outright—the popular vote, the Electoral College, everything. It wouldn’t even matter who would be running on the Democratic ticket. Forget about another coup attempt; he wouldn’t even need to bother with that this time. He might even win without the help of the myriad power-grabbing and voter suppression schemes that Republicans are setting up in various states they control, though that certainly wouldn’t hurt his chances.
Of course, this is purely a hypothetical scenario since the next presidential election isn’t actually for another 2.5 years (thank God), so how can I be so certain of this?
Well, because everything in this country and the world is terrible now, or at least that’s how it seems if you pay any attention to current events. And as Bill Maher has noted, most American voters are far too lazy and uninformed (or misinformed) to think past “throw the bums out.” Take whatever there is to be outraged about, and no matter what they’ll just blame it on whoever is currently in power without regard for any nuance, which the vast majority of the electorate is incapable of understanding or considering.
And people are outraged about plenty right now. Ukraine is just the start. Gas prices, for one, are through the roof. Inflation more generally is the worst it’s been in four decades. The pandemic has faded in severity as of late but there are worrying headlines about a new surge of cases in Europe, and if this eventually forces even parts of the United States to reimpose mask or vaccine mandates, some people will be outraged anew about that (assuming they ever stopped). Meanwhile, Congress really hasn’t gotten anything done since the infrastructure bill thanks in large measure to corporate shills like Joe Manchin; Build Back Better is dead. Shall I continue?
Again, though, the root causes or particulars of any of those issues are essentially irrelevant when you consider that the typical American voter bears not even the most rudimentary understanding of any of them (as evidenced by how many are blaming Joe Biden for the cost of gas), nor even a basic grasp on how their government works, who represents them, or, most worryingly of all, what’s at stake with their vote. All they know is that they’re mad as hell, and by God, they’re going to register that anger at the ballot box.
But you know who is deeply knowledgeable about American politics? Vladimir Putin. And here’s what I’m almost certain he’s betting on with Ukraine:
Joe Biden will increasingly be blamed for what is happening over there, absurd though that may be. In fact, it’s already happening right now. (Why didn’t Putin invade Ukraine while Trump was in the White House? Well, duh—he didn’t want his personal puppet to suffer that same fate.)
Combine this with all of the other aforementioned things to be pissed off about, and Democrats will be wiped out at the ballot box in the midterm elections later this year. They’ll lose in places that you might not think they could possibly lose; 2022 will make 2010 seem like a good year for them in hindsight.
The Republican Party—which is an authoritarian, neofascist cult littered with traitorous Putin sympathizers and backed by a propaganda apparatus known as Fox News—will then use its newfound power to ensure that the remainder of Biden’s first term is an abject failure. Any expanded U.S. involvement in or support for Ukraine (or any other countries that Russia might target) that requires congressional approval—financial, military, or otherwise—will be dead on arrival.
This obstructionism, on foreign policy and well beyond, naturally will foster continued disillusionment with the Biden administration, making it more likely that Republicans win back the White House in 2024. And if for some reason that doesn’t happen, of course, they’ll still control Congress at that time and thus can simply refuse to certify the election results, triggering a constitutional crisis. Putin, assuming he’s still around then, will watch this all unfold with glee, because there’s no way such a scenario ends anything other than terribly for the United States.
Fast-forward to January 2025, when Donald Trump or another Republican sociopath with similarly anti-democratic inclinations, such as Ron DeSantis, assumes the presidency. One of his first announcements will be that he’s withdrawing the United States from NATO. This is exactly what Trump would have done in his second term had he won in 2020, so if he manages to make it in 2024, you can be certain he will do it then.
Oh, but Congress will stop him, right? No. No, it won’t. Especially not if it’s controlled by pro-Putin Republicans, as it almost certainly would be in that case, and even if it wasn’t, how readily could a veto-proof majority be assembled for this purpose? Fat chance.
The rest of the story is all too predictable. With the United States out of NATO, Russia will have little compunction about targeting other states well beyond Ukraine, including those who are still members of the alliance, in service of Putin’s dream of reassembling the old Soviet Union. When this happens, the United States will be likely to remain uninvolved or, far worse, could side with Russia, since again, Putin sympathizers would be at the helm.
What’s left of NATO at that time would intervene, which could start World War III. But the United States is the only current member of NATO that matches or exceeds Russia in nuclear capabilities and overall military might, so with us out of the picture, there would be far less to deter Putin or his successor. And what if China were to declare its support for Russia at that time, as there are fears of now? Well, let’s not even go there.
Speaking of Putin’s successor, though, I’ve read some speculation that Putin is seriously ill and thus is doing this because he knows his days are numbered. Whether that’s true or not, my theory still stands. Trump and Putin are similar in that they both exhibit sociopathic traits, but where Trump is a blithering idiot who operates almost entirely on malignant narcissistic impulse that can change from one moment to the next, Putin is much more informed, strategic, and visionary. I believe he wants to leave behind a legacy.
That legacy, I think, is predicated on him simply waiting for the shit to hit the fan here in the United States, as it very nearly has already. Sure, his military is struggling in Ukraine right now, but that’s a small price to pay if it also causes problems for the Biden administration, which at this point is one of the few obstacles to Putin’s vision of restoring Mother Russia to her former glory.
That vision could come perilously close to fruition much sooner than anyone can imagine, if events in the United States over the next several years play out as he’s hoping—and as I fear—they will.
