The 2024 election is a catastrophe in the making
About five years ago, when I was still living in Arlington, Virginia, and the incessant specter of Donald Trump loomed right across the river in Washington, D.C., I was having happy hour with colleagues at the outdoor patio of a local bar. It was late spring, a time of year when D.C. is especially prone to sudden heavy thunderstorms.
Although it was nice out when we sat down, the weather was starting to change. The sun went away, the winds started to pick up a bit, and the sky turned ominous. At first we paid it little heed; we were enjoying some good beers and it was pleasant to be outside. But the clouds overhead kept getting darker and the wind, stiffer.
Eventually one of the guys at the table interjected with a question I remember clearly: “How long are we going to pretend that this isn’t happening?”
It was as though someone just needed to say it. We scurried inside and sure enough, moments later the sky opened up with thunder, lightning, and buckets of rain.
This anecdote comes to mind now because it seems to perfectly sum up the zeitgeist of America at the dawn of 2024, a year that could truly mark a political watershed in the history of this country. I know that’s what’s usually said about every major election year—but no, this upcoming year really is.
All the warning signs are on display for everyone to see; the emergency sirens are blaring. And yet the most that can be said about our collective response to these red flags is:
How long are we going to pretend this isn’t happening?
And what are those warning signs?
To be blunt, if the 2024 general election were held today, Donald Trump would emerge victorious not only in the Electoral College, but outright in the popular vote as well. He’d probably win all three of the so-called Blue Wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. He’d easily take back Georgia and Arizona. He’d most likely pick up Nevada, too.
And he’d come close in states you might not expect, like New Hampshire, Virginia, and Minnesota.
How can I be so confident in making this declaration, aside from the obvious fact that it’s mercifully just a hypothetical that can never actually be tested?
Well, if there had been just maybe one or two ugly polls for Joe Biden over the past six months, I wouldn’t be. I’d write those off as outliers. And if Joe Biden’s popularity rating was in flux, I’d say it’s simply not possible on New Year’s Day 2024 to speculate on what the electoral mood might be next November.
But neither of these is the case. Not only is Biden losing to Trump in state-level polls of six key battlegrounds, echoing the national polls that have generally said the same thing, but his approval rating has been reliably, consistently terrible for well over two years now. In fact, he’s not had a positive rating since the very beginning of September 2021. It’s as though the Afghanistan withdrawal happened, and Americans decided they simply didn’t like Biden, and that’s just how it was gonna be. He never recovered, and obviously now, coming up on three years hence, it’s not just (or likely at all) because of Afghanistan.
I’m not going to get into the unvarnished insanity of a critical bloc of American voters who will, yet again, freely support an out-of-control, sociopathic, malignant narcissist who was impeached twice, incited violent insurrection against our government, and is now under indictment for 91 separate felonies at both the state and federal levels, because…well, Biden is old, not very exciting, sometimes slips (both verbally and physically), and occasionally confuses celebrities (as do I, since I’m culturally illiterate, and I’m about half his age).
That ought to speak for itself. But in a way, it doesn’t matter anyway; frankly I don’t care why these voters are supporting this terrible person. So many of them have made clear that nothing can convince them not to.
I care whether this terrible person can win. He can, and he probably will. And if he does? Read Robert Kagan’s November essay in the Washington Post—every last word of it, please, lengthy though it may be—if you need a reminder of why this would be so catastrophic.
As for Joe Biden, I simply do not understand his rationale for running again. Does he really want this to be his legacy after well over a half century of public service? Quite unlike the also-geriatric Donald Trump, I have no reason to think that Biden is delusional or cognitively impaired, his verbal gaffes notwithstanding. So what is it?
Is it pride? Is he assuming that he will wildly overperform expectations in 2024 just like his party did in 2022 and 2023? If so, that’s a big mistake; it’s quite plausible, maybe probable, that Biden could lose next November even as Democrats down ballot hold their own due to the Dobbs effect.
Or does he know something that the rest of us don’t?
Indeed, there are limitless variables that obscure the path between now and November 2024—unforeseen events that could take place; factors that are known now that could either have a huge impact on what happens, or none at all.
It could be the outcome of any of the legal cases currently pending against Trump. Or it could be that although his cult is as strong as ever, the political party he has commandeered is currently in a shambles in several very important states. Or, who knows? Maybe once people actually start paying attention to the 2024 election and its grave implications, Biden’s fortunes will finally change.
I wouldn’t bet on it.
Here we are on New Year’s Day 2024, and it could not be more obvious that this country is headed for deep, deep trouble later this year. I won’t make any formal predictions because I’ve learned that doing so is usually foolish. But I also do not want this crucial moment to pass having said absolutely nothing.
The sky is ominous, the clouds heavy; and yet we march into this new year with no special measure of urgency, as if nothing is out of the ordinary and it’s business as usual as we approach an election whose result will likely rip to shreds whatever vestiges remain of democracy and the rule of law in America.
And I just have to wonder: How much longer are we going to pretend this isn’t happening?
